THE NUMBERS GAME

THE WORLD NO. 1 RANKING FOR THE MEN
Courtesy Sally Easton and the Wimbledon site, here is a look at the possible scenarios for the ATP rankings post the grass court major.

Novak Djokovic needs to reach the final of Wimbledon to take over the world no. 1 ranking from Rafael Nadal. The only way Nadal can retain his top slot is by winning Wimbledon and hoping Djokovic does not get to the final. Djokovic currently trails Nadal by only 65 ranking points (12,070 vs 12,005).

If Nadal does not reach the final, the Serb will take the ATP ranking lead, even if he goes out in the first round (or any later round) himself.

Nadal could also be vulnerable from world No. 3, Roger Federer. If Federer wins, and Nadal goes out before the final, the Swiss will jump to no.2 in the rankings, forcing Nadal down to no. 3.

THE ACTUAL ODDS OF THE ISNER MAHUT REMATCH
Thanks to CNN Sports Illustrated editor Jon Wertheim and his Toronto reader Gilbert Benoit, here is the explanation of the chances that Isner and Mahut could have drawn each other in the first round at SW 19.

Each Grand Slam tournament draw includes 128 players. The top 32 players are seeded and placed in the draw first. That leaves 96 slots for the others, in this case including Isner (No. 46) and Mahut (No. 99).

Let’s consider Isner and Mahut and ignore the other players in the field.

• Pick either player. Say Isner. If he is drawn against a seed, he will not play Mahut. There are 96 possible slots where he can be drawn, and 32 of those will be against a seeded player, so he has a 2/3 chance of not playing a seed.

• Then, consider the conditional probability of Mahut drawing Isner, assuming that Isner is not playing a seed. There are 95 slots left, so the probability is 1/95

• We obtain the probability by multiplying the conditional probability (1/95) by the probability that governs the condition (2/3), and we obtain 2/285.

That is less than a 1% chance of the event happening (0.7% to be precise)

The Pick of the First Round Women's Matches

In her pre-Wimbledon press conference yesterday, world no. 1 Caroline Wozniacki was pretty forthright when she said none of the girls wanted to play the Williams sisters on grass, even though the sisters have barely played since last year's Wimbledon. That says a lot about Venus and Serena, who have combined to win 9 of the last 11 singles titles at the All-England Club. Unfortunately for the others, the two sisters have been drawn in opposite sides of the draw which means there is a good chance that the final could be an all-Williams affair for the fourth consecutive year. But until we get there, let's take a look at some of the exciting first round matches on the women's side.

Francesca Schiavone (6) v Jelena Dokic - Dokic leads head-to-head 3-0 (First meeting on grass)
This is the pick of the first round matches on the ladies side so no surprise that it gets a Centre Court billing on day one. Schiavone is playing the best tennis of her life at age 30 but in spite of having some of the best volleys in the game, she has mostly struggled on the grass. Schiavone (11-10 at WIM, 24-25 on grass) has reached the second week only once – in 2009 when she made the quarters. Dokic, on the other hand, has reached the second week 4 times, including the quarters in her debut in 1999 and the semis in 2000. But the Serb-born Australian has not won a match at the All-England club since 2003. Dokic (17-7 at WIM, 43-19 on grass) is now back in the top 50 for the first time in 7 years on the back of making the finals of the WTA grass court event in Netherlands this week and is my pick for creating the first upset on the ladies side in 2011.
Prediction – Dokic in two tight sets

Aravane Rezai v Serena Williams (7) - Williams leads H2H 1-0 (First meeting on grass)
A few months back, this would have been a real test for Williams so soon into her comeback. But the Frenchwoman is not the player she was last year. Rezai has struggled mightily since January when problems with her father became public. Last month, Rezai accused her father of stealing money from her. Her results have taken a tumble as has her ranking, now down to no. 61 from the top 20 last year. Still, it should be a hard-hitting battle from the baseline between the two. Serena showed she is capable of producing some good tennis in Eastbourne last week and should win this easily in straight sets.
Prediction – Williams in straight sets

Jelena Jankovic (15) v Maria Jose Martinez Sanchez - Martinez Sanchez leads 2-1 (First meeting on grass)
Jankovic loves drama but she may not be too happy with her first round draw at Wimbledon this year. Her opponent is a tricky left hander from Spain, who loves hitting slices, drop shots and coming to the net. And Maria Jose Martinez Sanchez also holds a 2-1 lead in their carer head to head. The Spaniard is having a letdown after a career best 2010 which saw her beat Jankovic in the final of the Italian Open but should be still good enough to trouble the Serb, who is also in the midst of an on-court slump.
Prediction – Jankovic in three sets

Dominika Cibulkova (24) v Mirjana Lucic – First meeting
Baseline bashing at its best. Cibulkova is one of the prettiest players on the WTA Tour and also one of the most consistent, with good set of wheels. She lacks that one major weapon which has hindered her progress into the bigger league. Lucic is a former teen phenom who spent years in wilderness following troubles with an abusive father. She reached the semis at Wimbledon in 1999 but has not won a match here since 2000 and only recently returned to the top 100 this year.
Prediction – Lucic in straight sets

Anna Chakvetadze v Maria Sharapova (5) – Sharapova leads H2H 6-0 (First meeting on grass)
Sharapova is the overwhelming favourite in this encounter but her countrywoman should give her a good test in the first round. Sharapova is the only player besides the Williamses who has won Wimbledon and is one of the favourites for the title this year, coming off her strongest clay court season in many years. Chakvetadze is a former world no. 5 but is not the player she once was. Victim of an attempted robbery attempt a couple of years ago, Chakvetadze suffered an inner ear infection earlier this year, which saw her retire due to dizziness at a few events in 2011. Now having got clearance from the doctors to get back to playing, she will have nothing to lose when she takes on Sharapova which makes her a dangerous foe.
Prediction – Sharapova in straight sets

The Pick of Men's First Round Matches

The first thing that many noticed as soon as the Wimbledon draw was announced was that Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal were in opposite sides of the draw - leaving open the possibility of seeing a final the two best grass court players in both the draws. Federer and Nadal have combined for the last 8 of the men's titles. But before we get to the final, there are 126 other matches to be played in the men's draw. And while we can tennis fans can salivate at the prospect of another Federer vs Nadal final, there is no guarantee that will pan out. What is guaranteed are the first round match-ups and here are my pick of the most exciting first-round clashes in the men's draw.

John Isner v Nicolas Mahut – Head to Head 1-1 (both on grass)The most famous first round tennis match in tennis history will get its sequel – only this time, all eyes will be on the match from the very beginning. No matter how good this match gets, it will be hard for Isner and Mahut to top their effort from 2010 where they engaged in a 11 hour battle that spanned over 3 days and ended in a 70-68 fifth set win for the American in what is the longest match in tennis history. The pair have since become good friends although they have never spoken about the match to date. They were scheduled to practice together this weekend in preparation for Wimbledon but canceled their practice session as soon as they heard the draw. Isner has struggled since the Herculean effort last year but if his performance at Roland Garros is any indication (he is the only man in history to take Nadal to 5 sets at the French Open), he might be back on his way up. Mahut, who has written a book on last year's first round, is now back in the top 100 and did not have to scrape through qualifying like last year. It would be interesting to see if this
match gets scheduled on one of the show courts or is put back out on Court 18 where the duo battled last year.
Prediction – Isner in 4 sets

Radek Stepanek v Fernando Verdasco (21) – Stepanek leads H2H 3-2 (1-0 on grass)
This will be one of the few matches where we might see a battle of contrasting styles. 32 year old Stepanek likes to play an attacking style and will need to get to the net often if he hopes to upset the 21st seeded Spaniard. Stepanek has been as far as the quarter-finals at Wimbledon in 2006 and is making his first appearance at SW 19 in three years due to injury. Verdasco is fairly adept himself on the grass having made it to the last 16 in 2006, 2008 and 2009.
Prediction – Stepanek in 4 sets

Bernard Tomic v Nikolay Davydenko (29) – First Meeting
Davydenko may not be a top 3 player anymore but the Russian still has one of the best baseline games when he's on. On the other hand, Tomic is an 18 year old Australian, ranked 158 in the world, who plays a versatile game – mixing power groundstrokes with slices and dinks which will serve him well on the grass courts. The Australian has already won 3 matches to qualify for the main draw here which means he's battle ready. Davydenko will need to be in top form if he is to survive and get to the second round.
Prediction – Tomic in 5 sets

Marcos Baghdatis (32) v James Blake – Baghdatis leads 1-0 (First
meeting on grass)
This should be another exciting baseline battle. Hard to believe that Baghdatis is now 27 years old. The potential Slams written in his future when he came out on tour might remain only a potential. The Cypriot had a good 2010 to get back into the top 20 but has struggled this year. He has done well in London earlier – having reached the semis in 2006 and the quarters in 2007. 31 year old Blake is probably playing his last full season on tour and will need to be at his explosive best to have any chance against Baghdatis. Nonetheless, it should be a fun match to watch.
Prediction – Baghdatis in straight sets

Kei Nishikori v Lleyton Hewitt – First Meeting
Here's another rising youngster vs aging former champion battle. Hewitt is the last player not named Federer or Nadal to have triumphed at Wimbledon but injuries have taken a toll on the Australian's battle-hard body. He played his first match in 3 months just two weeks ago but had to withdraw from last week's event in Eastbourne due to injury again. While he hopes to be fit in time for this first round match, he certainly won't fancy his chances against Nishikori, a Japanese player who plays the same style as Hewitt only in a body that's a decade younger and fitter.
Prediction – Nishikori in four sets

Daily Wrap 15th June 2011 - Wimbledon, Williamses and Withdrawals

With the Williams sisters returning, the WTA might have hoped to showcase all their top players after what seemed like an eternity at the most prestigious of all Slams starting next week. But Kim Clijsters pulled the plug on those plans and her own ambitions of a first Wimbledon title as the Belgian pulled out due to a foot injury she suffered in a second round loss to Romina Oprandi yesterday. Clijsters missed the entire clay court season due to an ankle injury on the same foot and with another injury, the Belgian might be inclined to retire sooner than her planned 2012 exit post the London Olympics, coincidentally also to be held at SW 19. American Sam Querrey and Benjamin Becker also announced their withdrawal from the men's event due to elbow injuries

The Wimbledon seeds were announced today. The men are now seeded by a pre-determined formula which follows the world rankings and gives them extra credit for grass court wins in the last 2 seasons. That wasn't enough to push Roger Federer up from his current rank of no. 3. Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic are the top two seeds, which leaves us with the possible prospect of a Nadal-Federer showdown in the semi-finals.

The only change for the women's seeds related to the Williams sisters. Serena gets bumped from no. 25 to no. 7 while Venus moves from no. 33 to no. 24. Serena's comeback ended today at the hands of world no. 3 Vera Zvonareva at the Aegon International in Eastbourne. Serena won the first set and served for the match in the second, before the Russian bounced back to win it in a tie-break. In the third, it was Serena who fought back from 2-5 and 3 match points down to 5-5 but she was unable to complete the turnaround and Zvonareva held on to win the decider 7-5.

Venus, on the other hand, put in a commanding performance to dispatch Ana Ivanovic 6-3, 6-2. Venus' game is more prone to breaking down and the matches here will help her getting into groove for Wimbledon. Serena has the extraordinary ability to come in cold and get red-hot during the Championships so the loss does not put her chances in any different light than they were at the beginning of this week.

In other notable results from Eastbourne, French Open champion Li Na was beaten by Daniela Hantuchova, who is having a good run on the grass courts this year. On the men's side, top seed Jo-Wilfred Tsonga was beaten in straight sets by veteran Radek Stepanek and 20 year old Bulgarian Grigor Dimitrov, nicknamed "Baby-Fed" was an impressive straight sets winner over sixth seed Kevin Anderson. Many have been waiting for Dimitrov to break through for a while now but the Bulgarian has struggled to translate his success from the Challenger circuit to the ATP tour this year.

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Sub-continent dominates ATP doubles top 10

Players from the Indian sub-continent currently occupy 4 of the top 10 spots in the latest ATP doubles rankings for the week ending June 13th.

India's Mahesh Bhupathi holds on to the no. 5 spot, followed by Pakistan's Aisam-Ul-Huq Qureshi at no. 8, and Indians Rohan Bopanna and Leander Paes at no. 9 and no. 10 respectively.

There are 3 North Americans in the top 10 - with the American Bryan brothers, Mike and Bob, jointly holding the no. 1 ranking and Canadian Daniel Nestor at no. 4.

Three European players complete the top 10 with Belarus' Max Mirnyi at no. 3, Serbia's Nenad Zimonjic at no. 6 and Jurgen Melzer at no. 7.

In the doubles team rankings, Paes-Bhupathi hold on to the third spot with Bopanna-Qureshi climb one spot to no. 5 on the back of their win in Halle.

In the ATP singles rankings, Somdev Devvarman drops one place to no. 68. He is followed by Vishnu Vardhan at no. 319 (up 5 spots), Karan Rastogi at no. 344 (up 2 spots), Yuki Bhambri at no. (up 2 spots) and Rohan Gajjar at no. 476 (up 8 spots). The big mover among Indians is Divij Sharan, who reached the finals of an ITF event last week. He is up 217 positions to no. 764.

In the WTA rankings, Sania Mirza drops two spots no. 60 in the singles rankings while holding on to the 14th position in the individual doubles ranking. Mirza and partner Elena Vesnina are third in the race to the year end WTA Championships, just 260 points behind second placed Maria Kirilenko and Victoria Azarenka.

Paes, Bhupathi, Bopanna enter finals of Queens and Halle

The Indian Express duo of Leander Paes and Mahesh Bhupathi put their disappointing clay court season behind them with an upset win over the French Open champion Daniel Nestor and Max Mirnyi at the ATP Aegon Classic in Queen's Club, London.

The Indian duo won 6-7 (7-9), 7-6 (10-8), 10-8 in a match lasting 1 hour 49 minutes. They have won 2 titles this year - in Chennai and Indian Wells and lost in the finals of the Australian Open to the top-ranked duo Mike and Bob Bryan. Paes and Bhupathi will have a chance to avenge that defeat on Sunday as the Bryans also advanced to the final with an easy 6-2, 6-1 win over Marach/ Matkowski.

At the other ATP stop in Halle this week, the Indo-Pak Express of Rohan Bopanna and Aisam-Ul-Huq Qureshi also needed to work hard to reach the finals. Bopanna/ Qureshi beat Cas/ Kohlschreiber 5-7, 6-3, 11-9. This is the first final in 2011 for Bopanna/ Qureshi and they will play the duo of Robina Hasse and Milos Raonic for the title on Sunday.

Meanwhile, India's top singles players Somdev Devvarman and Sania Mirza will be tune-up for Wimbledon by playing in the combined Aegon International in Eastbourne this week. Somdev has got a direct entry into the main draw for the men and he will play the 4th seed Guillermo Garcia-Lopez, who he beat in Houston earlier this year, in the first round. Devvarman has lost his last six matches and will be looking for a morale-boosting win before heading to SW 19.

In the power-packed women's draw which includes the Williams sisters, Mirza will need to win 3 matches in the qualifying draw in order to make it into the main draw.

Finally, in New Delhi, Karunuday Singh clinched his maiden ITF singles title with a 6-4, 6-2 win over compatriot Vijayant Malik in the $10,000 ITF tournament. Malik was playing in his second ITF final this year.

OLD BALLS, PLEASE!!

Tennis players are a versatile breed. Some of them choose to quit at the top of their game; not ready to play the role of an also-ran after scaling the highest peaks of the sport. Others continue to grind it out on the professional circuit, years after their best days are behind them.

Jimmy Connors dropped out of the top 10 in April 1989 but continued playing for a few more years. And the Connors legend would not be the same were it not for his improbable yet magical run to the US Open semi-finals at the age of 39.

It takes a certain amount of character to continue playing when age or your body has got the better of you. It takes guts to come back from injury after injury; surgery after surgery; setback after setback - and put yourself in a position to be beaten by an opponent you know is not in the same league as you. It takes courage to defy the odds and the ravages of the ageing process for that one last shot at glory. And it takes a pure sacred love of the game to continue playing for the chase of that one last shot.

No one exemplifies these qualities more than Lleyton Hewitt, David Nalbandian and Tommy Haas - three former top-ranked men, two of whom were part of the ATP NEW BALLS, PLEASE campaign launched in 2001, who are now in the midst of their latest comeback attempts.

Hewitt is by far the most accomplished of the trio - having won 2 Grand Slams and reaching the top ranking in April 2001. Its been five years now since he has been ranked in the top 10 and six since he last reached the semi-finals at a Slam. It would have been easy for him to settle into the family life with his three kids or into the role of a Davis Cup captain. But a surgery on each of his hips and his ankle later, the Australian is still slugging it out on the tour. Hewitt had a 4-4 record this year until his latest setback - the ankle - put a brake on his season in March. He is back this week at the Gerry Weber Open and has won his first two matches - over Leonardo Mayer and Andreas Seppi - to reach the quarter-finals.

30 year old Hewitt certainly doesn't believe he is a spent force. In his post-match interview after beating Mayer, the Aussie said, "Ranking is not important to me. I have been out of the game for over three months and I feel it's tough to readjust. I couldn't care less about points.I have to pick up my game again, my timing, movement, footwork - everything has to become second nature again." He believes there will be more moments like last June where he unexpectedly beat Roger Federer in the finals of this same tournament after losing to the Swiss the last 15 times they had played. Not many think Hewitt has a chance to win Wimbledon this year, but at the same time, all the top seeds will be hoping to avoid drawing him in the early rounds at SW 19.

David Nalbandian is the opponent that Hewitt beat for his Wimbledon title and the 29 year old Argentine is now in a similar position to Hewitt. Nalbandian has been a sort of an enigma to many. Many anointed him as a Grand Slam champion but he never made it to another Slam final following that Wimbledon loss. And questionable fitness and a body that broke down at regular intervals has meant that he has not been to the semi-finals of a Slam since 2006.

In May 2009, Nalbandian underwent a hip surgery, and then had to endure abdominal and knee injuries as he launched his comeback in 2010. And in 2011, its been a torn hamstring and a hernia,that has prevented him from competing since March. Still ranked a respectable 24th in the world, Nalbandian also returned to the tour this week at the Ageon Classic in Queen's beating Illya Marchenko and Ilija Bozoljac before losing to the Spaniard Fernando Verdasco. Nalbandian will be another player the top seeds will be looking to avoid when the draw is made.

The oldest, most injured, and least accomplished of this triumvirate is 33 year old Tommy Haas. The German rose to #2 in the world in 2001, but was soon involved in a severe accident that nearly claimed the lives of his parents, leaving his father in a coma. Haas spent much of the 2002 season taking care of his family instead of playing tennis. At the end of his lay-off because of his parent's accident, he seriously injured his shoulder, requiring a major operation. He was plagued by further injuries and complications, and did not return to tennis until 2004. He then had shoulder surgery in November 2007 which took him out for 3 months. In 2010, the German had to undergo a right hip surgery followed by a right elbow surgery. Haas played his first singles match in 14 months at the French Open last month where he was beaten in the first round and he also lost his first match at Halle this week.

Haas is a little more skeptical about his future. Following his loss in Paris, he said, "I'm just kind of right there where I'm not sure where the body will be. All I try to do is to get it back to a place where I feel really comfortable for a few hours playing a match. And if that's possible, then I'll continue to play if I still have some success. And if I know it's next month or the end of the year that that's not the case, then I know where I am at and I can make a decision if I continue to play."

Here's hoping that they stick around a little longer and the sport, that they have given their life to, gives them a chance to go out on their own terms. Each one of them brings something unique to the game. Hewitt's fighting and competitive spirit, Nalbandian's smooth groundstrokes, and Haas' flowing one-handed backhand will be sorely missed when they decide to hang up their rackets for good.